Sentiment is not a prediction of if you will have a winning or losing trade!

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Regarding Alpari's floating spreads, it is me that has been talking about it on the forum - i also only found out through rumour, but emailed Alpari before posting anything on fapturbo to check the rumour, and it is indeed true.

Alpari (UK) Customer Services to
show details 16 Jan (12 days ago)

Reply

Hello,



Yes, we will switch to floating spreads.

Best regards,

Anna Zenina

Client Services

Checkmate ?

Trading is not, and never has been, about predicting the future. This is something which i can and will leave to the psychics amongst us. Market sentiment assesses current market conditions, and compares them to how fapturbo trades and makes an assessment of the probability of a losing night based on that. Probability is not about predicting if we will win or lose on a particular night. We cannot always win, we sometimes lose. Sentiment is not about finding the outcome of a particular setup or trade, this can be fairly easily calculated- it is a general overview of the market.

I have written a fairly detailed post outlining some of the basic things i look for in determining market sentiment- on this forum. I have also written about it on the FAPT forum.

I have said this many times also- it is by no means essential that you read market sentiment, it is information that is there should anyone want to read it- and it is indeed a very popular thread on the forum. I understand entirely why someone would not want to read it at all, after all we are trading a robot here, right? In which case- don't look at it.

Keep some records and find out ;-) Set a demo account trading all four pairs each night, note down my sentiment. If i say 'normal' trading- what percentage of nights are winning nights for that pair? If i say 'conservative' does this percentage decrease? And if i say "avoid trading" i wonder if the percentage of winning nights decreases yet further?

The trouble with doing something like this is that it is quite time consuming and you need a decent sample size to be able to draw any conclusions of statistical significance, perhaps a bare minimum of 100 trading nights for each category of trading.

But it's made me wonder - and from now i might just start keeping a spreadsheet of this and see how it works out. It could be a year before we have meaningful results though!