Optimization Results

[papiken]

Hello, everyone. I am newbie. I finally got my optimization results. (it took 2 weeks to figure it out though,,, :o) Now here is my question: should I simply choose the setting based on profits? What about profit factor, expected payoff, or draw down%? Do you take them into your consideration?

[mystikdragon7]

Hello, everyone. I am newbie. I finally got my optimization results. (it took 2 weeks to figure it out though,,, :o) Now here is my question: should I simply choose the setting based on profits? What about profit factor, expected payoff, or draw down%? Do you take them into your consideration?


Can you post your results?
How much capital are you starting out with in your demo account?
What is your lot size set at?
What currency pairs are you trading?

You should definitely take all that into consideration when you are adjusting your settings. Profit factor/expected payoff depends on how many pips you want to make on each trade. Your take profit is not in dollar amount it's in pips. So depending on your lot size and leverage will determine how much actual cash you will make (or lose). A lot of us here set our take profit at 20 and are doing great. I myself have a different setting for take profit that I'm testing with with. Your draw down setting (stop loss) should be set (or at least IMHO) at zero. A lot of us here are using zero for a stop loss and are doing great. Some others are using a stop loss of about 350 or higher and are doing just as good if not better. Something you should also consider is your max orders per pair. If yo like to take risks then set them higher, or is you're more conservative set them lower.

Depending on what kind of a trading style you choose will determine how you adjust your settings.

[papiken]

Can you post your results?
How much capital are you starting out with in your demo account?
What is your lot size set at?
What currency pairs are you trading?

You should definitely take all that into consideration when you are adjusting your settings. Profit factor/expected payoff depends on how many pips you want to make on each trade. Your take profit is not in dollar amount it's in pips. So depending on your lot size and leverage will determine how much actual cash you will make (or lose). A lot of us here set our take profit at 20 and are doing great. I myself have a different setting for take profit that I'm testing with with. Your draw down setting (stop loss) should be set (or at least IMHO) at zero. A lot of us here are using zero for a stop loss and are doing great. Some others are using a stop loss of about 350 or higher and are doing just as good if not better. Something you should also consider is your max orders per pair. If yo like to take risks then set them higher, or is you're more conservative set them lower.

Depending on what kind of a trading style you choose will determine how you adjust your settings.

Thank you, mystikdragon7.
I am trading EURUSD, with $4000.
After I got data from optimization, i did backtasting with them, but the results were horrible. so i think i did something worng.
I am currently demo trading with
Lots 0
Max Order 5
aaa 20
bbb 8
stoploss 0

[mystikdragon7]

Thank you, mystikdragon7.
I am trading EURUSD, with $4000.
After I got data from optimization, i did backtasting with them, but the results were horrible. so i think i did something worng.
I am currently demo trading with
Lots 0
Max Order 5
aaa 20
bbb 8
stoploss 0

I see you have your lot size set at zero. What is your risk reducer set at?

[papiken]

I see you have your lot size set at zero. What is your risk reducer set at?

my risk reducer is set at 1.0

Any advice or criticism are welcome, because I honestly don’t understand this whole autopilot thing. Are there any good website which explain how to optimize expert advisors or autopilot? I think the manual does not explain at all.

[mystikdragon7]

Are there any good website which explain how to optimize expert advisors or autopilot? I think the manual does not explain at all.

Right here on Forex Autopilot Forum!!!!!:D:D:

[alan]

Right here on Forex Autopilot Forum!!!!!:D:D:

I put up a visual guide on my blog. If you're curious check it out here:

http://alansforexblog.com/2008/09/06/metatrader-4-backtesting-optimization/

[papiken]

Right here on Forex Autopilot Forum!!!!!:D:D:

I put up a visual guide on my blog. If you're curious check it out here:

http://alansforexblog.com/2008/09/06/metatrader-4-backtesting-optimization/

Thank you for your info:)

[newman]

For those interested, I have appended a portion of the optimization results below for your reference. This is based the guide on Alan's blog.


Optimization Report
ForexAutoPilotSep08

Optimization Graph
Pass Profit Total trades Profit factor Expected Payoff Drawdown $ Drawdown %
1 20.67 802 1.02 0.03 155.03 14.82
2 265.80 758 1.19 0.35 656.16 54.37
3 739.27 549 3.79 1.35 290.51 24.58
4 1029.74 482 2.12 2.14 709.02 45.94
5 209.90 232 1.94 0.90 164.00 14.82
6 55.27 448 1.08 0.12 277.12 27.71
7 272.60 387 1.29 0.70 191.76 14.19
8 157.25 175 1.93 0.90 122.36 11.32
9 182.29 600 1.23 0.30 161.37 13.58
10 431.88 450 2.06 0.96 138.24 12.81
11 93.58 278 1.22 0.34 144.26 13.79
12 1480.70 454 2.51 3.26 952.65 41.47
13 751.70 582 1.48 1.29 1589.54 68.80
14 46.65 248 1.08 0.19 477.02 38.57
15 176.76 190 2.03 0.93 164.91 14.09
16 2383.77 563 3.08 4.23 1227.15 43.46
17 238.56 111 2.51 2.15 132.30 12.48
18 221.47 425 1.41 0.52 205.61 17.44
19 102.60 43 3.09 2.39 78.11 7.20
20 571.03 686 1.37 0.83 887.48 54.75
21 111.52 123 1.95 0.91 119.70 10.62
22 57.76 1211 1.03 0.05 294.21 25.85
23 31.34 94 1.23 0.33 44.99 4.50
24 455.73 441 1.39 1.03 743.88 50.10
25 616.39 438 4.15 1.41 230.83 20.77
26 422.06 459 1.96 0.92 153.85 14.39
27 228.10 283 1.82 0.81 149.50 13.66
28 412.68 392 2.30 1.05 284.10 18.92
29 346.09 231 5.11 1.50 94.05 8.48
30 160.05 116 1.67 1.38 188.10 16.56
31 384.57 1046 1.28 0.37 325.34 28.31
32 310.57 525 1.47 0.59 453.98 38.70
33 124.03 135 2.03 0.92 97.38 9.27
34 44.28 313 1.09 0.14 439.32 32.90
35 139.51 648 1.15 0.22 164.58 15.57
36 522.48 459 2.67 1.14 302.94 21.68
37 62.60 311 1.07 0.20 895.35 53.81
38 148.04 759 1.12 0.20 605.49 42.20
39 134.37 277 1.16 0.49 771.37 46.50
40 152.79 147 1.46 1.04 277.27 21.63
41 158.13 231 1.63 0.68 268.50 24.86
42 236.59 189 3.11 1.25 97.38 9.27
43 369.88 364 1.36 1.02 792.13 42.79
44 199.47 545 1.16 0.37 718.54 52.32
45 328.55 310 2.42 1.06 185.64 16.34
46 189.29 557 1.11 0.34 1444.24 64.44
47 139.43 702 1.08 0.20 413.58 27.74
48 315.07 562 1.19 0.56 1425.55 62.40
49 14.02 68 1.13 0.21 51.04 4.90
50 422.14 672 1.33 0.63 705.81 48.63
51 181.23 207 1.96 0.88 196.38 16.84
52 480.70 655 1.67 0.73 477.28 32.13
53 255.20 289 1.35 0.88 579.64 37.67
54 1007.79 290 5.19 3.48 250.80 19.57
55 581.39 482 2.89 1.21 236.79 18.07
56 1470.27 523 3.51 2.81 840.27 53.59
57 205.49 395 1.39 0.52 352.92 31.10
58 114.20 773 1.10 0.15 256.66 19.92
59 81.94 112 1.66 0.73 92.97 8.26
60 46.83 61 1.72 0.77 45.52 4.28
61 51.62 313 1.06 0.16 826.72 52.25
62 24.56 326 1.04 0.08 400.97 33.85
63 408.83 488 1.30 0.84 1311.72 63.06
64 18.55 181 1.06 0.10 246.07 21.11
65 81.26 65 3.14 1.25 31.35 3.06
66 366.52 356 1.40 1.03 693.66 39.32
67 405.96 203 2.31 2.00 265.80 20.94
68 66.42 47 1.65 1.41 74.20 7.19
69 3907.15 720 3.38 5.43 1622.33 47.59
70 206.07 144 4.38 1.43 62.70 5.95
71 53.58 53 1.39 1.01 91.82 8.38
72 170.95 180 2.04 0.95 164.80 14.00
73 938.49 308 4.47 3.05 374.17 28.25
74 70.51 191 1.26 0.37 97.05 8.87
75 171.53 186 1.98 0.92 180.80 15.18
76 208.94 164 1.79 1.27 182.75 16.88
77 48.23 45 2.53 1.07 39.93 3.84
78 32.74 57 1.44 0.57 58.40 5.59
79 46.57 178 1.17 0.26 88.76 8.67
80 1133.21 429 2.70 2.64 468.30 38.94
81 694.28 235 4.05 2.95 261.02 19.49
82 124.52 408 1.21 0.31 405.96 36.45
83 72.48 208 1.24 0.35 162.82 15.51
84 85.60 156 1.43 0.55 167.87 14.23
85 451.18 332 3.75 1.36 190.90 17.38
86 75.74 306 1.09 0.25 853.74 52.22
87 51.05 86 1.24 0.59 69.51 6.59
88 321.26 489 1.56 0.66 460.16 32.13
89 362.51 565 1.26 0.64 547.30 36.05
90 144.02 281 1.38 0.51 252.06 23.05
91 224.76 87 3.83 2.58 156.22 13.94
92 246.00 580 1.19 0.42 680.51 48.23
93 58.36 207 1.18 0.28 221.22 20.08
94 377.90 246 1.98 1.54 277.58 24.06
95 10.74 71 1.09 0.15 41.59 4.11
96 281.66 338 1.34 0.83 495.40 41.62
97 653.71 737 1.95 0.89 401.49 29.50
98 304.08 310 1.35 0.98 651.82 38.23
99 45.02 47 2.15 0.96 45.45 4.47
100 117.46 511 1.15 0.23 785.58 56.93
101 591.33 353 1.81 1.68 545.40 40.93
102 120.90 372 1.21 0.32 330.44 30.23
103 34.62 199 1.10 0.17 228.96 20.08
104 630.80 525 2.95 1.20 387.92 32.31
105 17.80 70 1.17 0.25 52.98 5.08
106 346.69 227 1.77 1.53 339.46 25.02
107 86.07 81 2.47 1.06 78.11 7.33
108 270.17 168 1.80 1.61 288.16 20.68
109 25.36 721 1.02 0.04 456.48 41.96
110 94.36 241 1.13 0.39 218.45 18.29
111 121.00 237 1.39 0.51 261.63 20.62
112 98.59 173 1.25 0.57 145.96 12.90
113 931.87 393 2.44 2.37 292.54 22.84
114 38.29 174 1.14 0.22 79.67 7.91
115 104.54 66 6.45 1.58 31.35 2.99
116 480.92 589 1.31 0.82 509.18 34.97
117 584.55 435 3.68 1.34 188.10 15.27
118 89.28 331 1.17 0.27 337.48 28.39
119 244.81 423 1.20 0.58 1106.62 56.56
120 695.63 376 1.95 1.85 388.05 27.54
121 138.38 143 1.39 0.97 190.81 17.52
122 55.07 66 1.82 0.83 49.88 4.62
123 17.86 131 1.05 0.14 149.02 12.98
124 34.07 499 1.03 0.07 250.24 21.70
125 27.40 729 1.02 0.04 281.62 23.90
126 84.00 76 1.63 1.11 77.51 7.48
127 588.87 327 1.90 1.80 627.21 40.95
128 418.03 381 2.54 1.10 290.90 23.82
129 350.99 454 1.37 0.77 839.88 51.68
130 131.16 98 1.64 1.34 170.83 14.69
131 383.64 183 2.44 2.10 209.36 15.94
132 232.87 215 1.51 1.08 279.80 23.48
133 211.74 428 1.38 0.49 422.89 37.77
134 372.36 188 2.32 1.98 223.19 19.34
135 48.87 97 1.39 0.50 69.13 6.44
136 72.65 161 1.33 0.45 117.56 10.41
137 132.00 572 1.10 0.23 1179.10 69.52
138 66.17 253 1.17 0.26 149.37 13.03
139 13.07 76 1.11 0.17 47.35 4.68
140 160.26 141 2.71 1.14 111.84 10.56
141 459.34 355 3.42 1.29 188.10 15.59