4pm - 9pm range theory

[JillyB]

Some of you may have read in the daily trading posts that I have a theory on the 4pm - 9pm range of each currency pair affecting the profitability of FAPT. However I could do with a little help on this, if people are willing.

Since we all seem to have slightly different results from FAPT, I was wondering if you could add any other dates to the ones below when we have had losing trades. I don't mean the small losses that we sometimes get, but trades which went on to hit the stop-loss.

So far I have trades which have hit stoploss on the following days (to make things easier I have listed the dates as it was at the start of FAPT at 9pm - so if a losing trade was on 6th January at 0.43am, it is listed under 5th January, as that was when the FAPT session commenced).

These are the losing trades myself and my partner have recorded since FAPT started on 25th November 2008.

5th January eur/chf
8th January usd/cad
12th January usd/cad
13th January eur/chf and gbp/chf
15th January usd/cad

If anyone can add to this, please could they post the date and the currency pair.

Thanks.

[Johno]

Some of you may have read in the daily trading posts that I have a theory on the 4pm - 9pm range of each currency pair affecting the profitability of FAPT. However I could do with a little help on this, if people are willing.

Since we all seem to have slightly different results from FAPT, I was wondering if you could add any other dates to the ones below when we have had losing trades. I don't mean the small losses that we sometimes get, but trades which went on to hit the stop-loss.

So far I have trades which have hit stoploss on the following days (to make things easier I have listed the dates as it was at the start of FAPT at 9pm - so if a losing trade was on 6th January at 0.43am, it is listed under 5th January, as that was when the FAPT session commenced).

These are the losing trades myself and my partner have recorded since FAPT started on 25th November 2008.

5th January eur/chf
8th January usd/cad
12th January usd/cad
13th January eur/chf and gbp/chf
15th January usd/cad

If anyone can add to this, please could they post the date and the currency pair.

Thanks.

23rd December usd/cad

5th January eur/chf X 2

8th January usd/cad

13th January eur/chf

15th January usd/cad

[Anton]

My biggest losses:
Jan 5: EURCHF
Jan 13: EURGBP and EURCHF
Jan 15: USDCAD

[JillyB]

23rd December usd/cad

5th January eur/chf X 2

8th January usd/cad

13th January eur/chf

15th January usd/cad

usd/cad on 23rd December - that's a new one. Did anyone else have this as a losing trade?

This is the only trade so far which isn't following the pattern.

[madpoet]

Here are mine... this spans 3 different brokers so if you need me to clarify more I can:

2588462 2008.12.19 02:25 buy 0.30 eurgbp 0.94839 0.93160 0.95420 2008.12.19 10:58 0.93625 0.00 0.00 0.00 -549.38

**That trade closed at a small loss on other brokers but not on FXPro... it never quite came back to -4 pips to close it.

2668556 2008.12.23 01:43 sell 0.10 eurgbp 0.94158 0.95720 0.93570 2008.12.23 03:07 0.94292 0.00 0.00 0.00 -19.87
2765023 2008.12.31 01:01 sell 0.10 eurchf 1.49078 1.50670 1.48600 2008.12.31 01:51 1.49346 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25.36
32788247 2009.01.05 21:08 sell 0.98 eurchfm 1.5082 1.5246 1.5022 2009.01.05 21:47 1.5135 0.00 0.00 0.00 -46.72
2830378 2009.01.06 00:57 buy 0.10 gbpchf 1.63085 1.61460 1.63510 2009.01.06 06:42 1.62325 0.00 0.00 0.00 -68.42
2831239 2009.01.06 01:36 buy 0.10 eurchf 1.51275 1.49610 1.51680 2009.01.06 06:33 1.50743 0.00 0.00 0.00 -47.89
2076064101 2009.01.12 23:00 sell 0.14 usdcad 1.2152 1.2320 1.2092 2009.01.12 23:49 1.2194 0.00 0.00 0.00 -48.22

[Sooner]

Some of you may have read in the daily trading posts that I have a theory on the 4pm - 9pm range of each currency pair affecting the profitability of FAPT. However I could do with a little help on this, if people are willing.

Since we all seem to have slightly different results from FAPT, I was wondering if you could add any other dates to the ones below when we have had losing trades. I don't mean the small losses that we sometimes get, but trades which went on to hit the stop-loss.

So far I have trades which have hit stoploss on the following days (to make things easier I have listed the dates as it was at the start of FAPT at 9pm - so if a losing trade was on 6th January at 0.43am, it is listed under 5th January, as that was when the FAPT session commenced).

These are the losing trades myself and my partner have recorded since FAPT started on 25th November 2008.

5th January eur/chf
8th January usd/cad
12th January usd/cad
13th January eur/chf and gbp/chf
15th January usd/cad

If anyone can add to this, please could they post the date and the currency pair.

Thanks.

JillyB you might want to take a look at the statements on the fapturbo website as well. that should give a a good look back even before we got our hands on it.

[JillyB]

JillyB you might want to take a look at the statements on the fapturbo website as well. that should give a a good look back even before we got our hands on it.

The problem with this Sooner, is that they haven't been trading all the pairs. I can't see one usd/cad trade on their statements, and only a couple of gbp/chf trades, so it's not really giving us a clear picture.

[JillyB]

interesting hypothesis. it may also require to check days without SL but where 4-9 range was big.

i will be surprised if correlation will be more than 50/50 like most indicators based on past trying to predict future :)

This is true - there have been a number of days with a large range and the pairs haven't had any losing trades. So it isn't a case of there definitely being a losing trade if the 4pm-9pm range is large.

All I can say at this stage is that all the losing trades DID occur on days when the 4pm-9pm range was large (around double the average range). There have been NO losing trades on any pair when the 4pm -9pm range was small.

Eur/chf = range above 85 -90 pips is likely to give losing trades
Eur/gbp = range above 70-80 pips is likely to give losing trades
Gbp/chf = range above 170-180 pips is likely to give losing trades
Usd/cad = range above 120-130 pips is likely to give losing trades

For instance on Wednesday when we had a storming night trading, the ranges were quite small.

Eur/chf = 44
Eur/gbp = 41
Gbp/chf = 78
Usd/cad = 118

Where as on Tuesday when we had losing trades on the Eur/chf and the Gbp/chf the values were

Eur/chf = 100
Gbp/chf = 186

At the moment my thoughts are to either reduce the lot size on pairs with a large trading range, or not to trade that particular pair and increase the lot size on the remaining pairs to compensate.

[flag trader]

23.12.08 cad

5/6/1/09 chf x2

6/7/1/09 chf

13/14/1/09 chf

[JasonSTX]

32792996 2009.01.06 00:00 buy 0.25 eurchfm 1.5122 1.4970 1.5169 2009.01.06 04:46 1.5052 0.00 0.00 0.00 -15.74

32788396 2009.01.05 21:10 sell 0.26 eurchfm 1.5082 1.5244 1.5031 2009.01.05 22:10 1.5136 0.00 0.00 -0.44 -12.65

32402643 2008.12.17 22:44 sell 0.80 eurgbpm 0.9288 0.9447 0.9235 2008.12.18 04:19 0.9292 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.98

2076064077 2009.01.12 23:00 sell 0.01 usdcad 1.2152 1.2313 1.2098 2009.01.13 07:59 1.2210 0.00 0.00 0.02 -4.75

2076264660 2009.01.16 01:58 buy 0.01 usdcad 1.2519 1.2355 1.2575 2009.01.16 03:57 1.2461 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.65

[lloyd72]

24/12....euro/chf
30/12....usd/cad

05/01...euro/chf
06/01...euro/chf
13/01...usd/cad
14/01...euro/chf
20/01....usd/cad
22/01....usd/cad.

i would comment at some unusual results here ..... that for an unknown length of time my broadband connection was virtually non-exsistant...my trades were down in numbers...and compared to my good friend johno's totally different ..resolved b/band issues and both accounts trade the same more or less.