View Full Version : backtest for Multiple months
I've noticed that while backtesting a whole year..you have problems around the 8 or 9th month once the lots start to get bigger(autolot use only)
by the 11th month lots are hitting 14 OMG:eek: so it's easy to kill and account.
for better results you need to limit your lots size(autolot use only)
you keep more of your money if you do so....
use "maxlots" and set that anywhere from 2-5 to stop your lots from growning too large during a backtest. this way you don't get that big drawdown at the end.
:D
^eagle^
11-08-2008, 06:53 PM
I've noticed that while backtesting a whole year..you have problems around the 8 or 9th month once the lots start to get bigger(autolot use only)
by the 11th month lots are hitting 14 OMG:eek: so it's easy to kill and account.
for better results you need to limit your lots size(autolot use only)
you keep more of your money if you do so....
use "maxlots" and set that anywhere from 2-5 to stop your lots from growning too large during a backtest. this way you don't get that big drawdown at the end.
:D
That is the most important lesson i nforex.
as your account grows you risk LESS as a percentage of your account.
That is the most important lesson i nforex.
as your account grows you risk LESS as a percentage of your account.thats not an option in autolots...sorry... if you want to make money it's best to use autolots
xixkko
11-08-2008, 09:50 PM
Hi Earl
I'm sorry to ask you but what is (autolots only)...I'm still new to the forex market and by reading your and some other guys comments I'm beginning to understand more.
Peace.
:);):D
when you set your lot size to zero
faps picks a lot size depending on your balance...as your balance goes up so does your lot size automatically.
you don't have to touch it...but if your not careful it could get out of hand
mystikdragon7
11-08-2008, 10:16 PM
use "maxlots" and set that anywhere from 2-5 to stop your lots from growning too large during a backtest. this way you don't get that big drawdown at the end.
:D
So with your test you pretty much come up with when you start losing your money half way through the year to set your lot size to a specific amount. Have you been able to test after that period of time. Lets say go back two years and back test?
So with your test you pretty much come up with when you start losing your money half way through the year to set your lot size to a specific amount. Have you been able to test after that period of time. Lets say go back two years and back test?
basically faps keeps changing the lot size as your account gets bigger and bigger....
account gets bigger ....lot gets bigger and bigger more risk
I think if you start with a 10k account and you use auto lot this stay pretty much in control until you hit the 60k profit area once you pass 6 lots eventually you'll kill your account...I've had lots as high as 19 wow
so using max lots set to 6 it just stops faps from letting your lots get any bigger and stops that whopper losses near the end
Short14
11-09-2008, 08:09 PM
Amen to that Earl... Thats what I was talking about earlier when I said Chart the Trend with demarkers and when the treand starts to shift get out of those huge lot trades, but with Max lots you eliminate the manual part.... Learning something new every day..... :)
lorddave
11-09-2008, 08:28 PM
What about if you were to use a risk level of 5 for the first say 6 months of backtesting, Then take the account balance at the end of that and input those details into another test for the next 6 months, but with a risk of 2.5 or less, so you are still using auto lots, but don't end up with 14 lot.
I am at work atm, so am unable to try this out myself, will give it a shot when i get home tonight though...
What about if you were to use a risk level of 5 for the first say 6 months of backtesting, Then take the account balance at the end of that and input those details into another test for the next 6 months, but with a risk of 2.5 or less, so you are still using auto lots, but don't end up with 14 lot.
I am at work atm, so am unable to try this out myself, will give it a shot when i get home tonight though...hey that would work.....for back testing....yes...
on a live or demo account you could change the risk at any time....but you can't while back testing..
nice thought thanks:D
Short14
11-09-2008, 09:01 PM
hey that would work.....for back testing....yes...
on a live or demo account you could change the risk at any time....but you can't while back testing..
nice thought thanks:D
I think the trick is just like Gambling, once you reach a specific profit ( Say 1K ), Pull it out and continue with the rest... If I would have done this from the start I would have pocketed about 10k since 9/28
lorddave
11-09-2008, 09:04 PM
on a live or demo account you could change the risk at any time....but you can't while back testing..
Well yeah, It's not like you would actually leave the account to its own devices for 11 months :)
On a sidenote, after reading your results for a few weeks and testing on my own demo account, I have started a $100 live account with Earls settings (But I am running with 10 trades, Risk = 1), only got 1 night of trading last week due to market close but Im up $9.36 so far :p
Well yeah, It's not like you would actually leave the account to its own devices for 11 months :)
On a sidenote, after reading your results for a few weeks and testing on my own demo account, I have started a $100 live account with Earls settings (But I am running with 10 trades, Risk = 1), only got 1 night of trading last week due to market close but Im up $9.36 so far :pif you are running them on the M5 chart with a stop time of 1 you'll notice they will all clump together....so it's like running 1 trade at 10% risk..
1 trade is more profitable because you only loose 2 pips to the broker once not 10 times(20pip)
lorddave
11-09-2008, 09:25 PM
But! The 20 pip loss on 10 trades that are 1/10th the size of a single monolithic trade is equivilent to 2 "larger" pips.
Your other point though, that the trades will tend to clump together... Perhaps setting a longer stop time, say 10 - 15 (I assume the value is in minutes?) would mean that you can enter the market at many differant points and still keep earning profits instead of that 1 large trade hanging around...
But! The 20 pip loss on 10 trades that are 1/10th the size of a single monolithic trade is equivilent to 2 "larger" pips.
Your other point though, that the trades will tend to clump together... Perhaps setting a longer stop time, say 10 - 15 (I assume the value is in minutes?) would mean that you can enter the market at many differant points and still keep earning profits instead of that 1 large trade hanging around...yes but you run into some huge drawdowns as the trades overlap...too much stress for me...if you back test you'll see the profit is not as good...and sometime you even get stopped out margin ran too low..
10 trades with a tp of 10 pip could slove that ...but less profit...
I wish I had an answer for the one trade.....patients??:rolleyes:
lorddave
11-09-2008, 10:21 PM
Thats what doesn't make sense to me... that the single trade would make more money then multiples...
Well it does if you were closing out less then 10 times as many profitable trades, hrmmm I must ponder more on this.
Edit: In theory, if you had maybe 5 trades, each 1/5 of the size of your larger trade, with a big enough stop time to make them spread out (But not too much!)you may be able to close more then 5 times the amount of profitable trades, thereby making more profit for the same risk... bah 3.5 hours until I can get home and start testing!
Thats what doesn't make sense to me... that the single trade would make more money then multiples...
Well it does if you were closing out less then 10 times as many profitable trades, hrmmm I must ponder more on this.it all has to do with the timing..... the closer all 10 trades are together ie stop time 1...the better chance you have to close all 10.....but say you set your stop time to 10...faps might pick buys and sells all over the chart when ever the internal indicators choose to buy.... even though the trades may come good but the end of the month rolls a long and kills you.
plus the other things you have to take into account like you margin % if the trend turns against you..
man you end up spinning your wheels...which just as much lossed or losing trades as winners
more is less
less is more
1 trade 1 currency 1 sound cha ching
Thats what doesn't make sense to me... that the single trade would make more money then multiples...
Well it does if you were closing out less then 10 times as many profitable trades, hrmmm I must ponder more on this.
Edit: In theory, if you had maybe 5 trades, each 1/5 of the size of your larger trade, with a big enough stop time to make them spread out (But not too much!)you may be able to close more then 5 times the amount of profitable trades, thereby making more profit for the same risk... bah 3.5 hours until I can get home and start testing!thats if all 5 trades go in the same direction
Short14
11-09-2008, 10:55 PM
thats if all 5 trades go in the same direction
The most $ money I made was with the factory settings 5 trades each lot size .05 eur/usd usd/chf And if I would have known about the 0 lot size I would have made a killing... The results are posted in the results section sometime mid October... Earl and I were rockin and rollin....And arguin about AAA BBB but I conceited he was right :):):D
lorddave
11-09-2008, 10:59 PM
Well thats what set me off about multiple trades originally!
As I said in my very first post on this forum, I have been lurking here for awhile and thought it was time I put in my 2 cents or, 1.75 cents or whatever the Aussie dollar is trading at...
Well thats what set me off about multiple trades originally!
As I said in my very first post on this forum, I have been lurking here for awhile and thought it was time I put in my 2 cents or, 1.75 cents or whatever the Aussie dollar is trading at...you get trades pulling at your account many different ways..I bin there done that...
your making money but you have lots unrealized loss
1 you hit the wall and margin call gets your ass
2 end of the month rolls around and the trades are closed out
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