Willsell's Setting 2 thumb up!

[Earl]

:DWillsell's setting is definetly another option!!!
all I did is just make it 1 position...and not 5... good to go..
it would never had taken that sell at 1.2402 like my settings did.
It works better with a tp of 25

this is like coke verse pepsi... both are good just pick one and drink...AAAHHH

Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs. United States Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.02 10:00 - 2008.11.14 23:55 (2008.01.01 - 2008.11.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=11; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=11; StopTime=5; aaa=30; bbb=15; TakeProfit=25; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=0; UseMAControl=1; PeriodMA=75; PriceMA_0_6=0; TypeMA_0_3=0; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=3; OrderMagic=231313; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0; StartWorkTimeHour=0; StartWorkTimeMin=0; EndWorkTimeHour=0; EndWorkTimeMin=0; KEY="158136131";

Bars in test 65722 Ticks modelled 2847355 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 3

Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 432825.09 Gross profit 607890.75 Gross loss -175065.66
Profit factor 3.47 Expected payoff 1621.07
Absolute drawdown 7183.41 Maximal drawdown 109700.39 (39.63%) Relative drawdown 78.31% (10167.96)

Total trades 267 Short positions (won %) 153 (97.39%) Long positions (won %) 114 (95.61%)
Profit trades (% of total) 258 (96.63%) Loss trades (% of total) 9 (3.37%)
Largest profit trade 3251.31 loss trade -42755.01
Average profit trade 2356.17 loss trade -19451.74
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 54 (145605.76) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-42755.01)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 145605.76 (54) consecutive loss (count of losses) -42755.01 (1)
Average consecutive wins 29 consecutive losses 1

[oofdah]

I just ran those same settings - Confirmed!! :)

However, if I'm not mistaken that is running at 11% risk, correct?

Doesn't that seem kind of high?

Who's gonna be the first to test this on their live account? ;)

[Mgomez]

Hi there,

I am new to this forum (just bought FAPS) and I am having some trouble to reproduce those results. I must be missing something as I get stopped out in 7 trades. Please note that TP & SlipPage are multiplied by 10 as Alpari is giving 5-digit quotes. Apart from that, I think I used the same parameters. Please see below:

Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.02 09:00 - 2008.11.14 22:55 (2008.01.02 - 2008.11.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=11; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=11; StopTime=5; aaa=30; bbb=15; TakeProfit=250; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=0; UseMAControl=1; PeriodMA=75; PriceMA_0_6=0; TypeMA_0_3=0; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=30; OrderMagic=231313; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0; StartWorkTimeHour=0; StartWorkTimeMin=0; EndWorkTimeHour=0; EndWorkTimeMin=0; KEY="209011512";

Bars in test 65724 Ticks modelled 3496702 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0

Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -9721.10 Gross profit 7089.19 Gross loss -16810.29
Profit factor 0.42 Expected payoff -1388.73
Absolute drawdown 9721.10 Maximal drawdown 18327.65 (98.50%) Relative drawdown 98.50% (18327.65)

Total trades 7 Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%) Long positions (won %) 7 (85.71%)
Profit trades (% of total) 6 (85.71%) Loss trades (% of total) 1 (14.29%)
Largest profit trade 1445.00 loss trade -16810.29
Average profit trade 1181.53 loss trade -16810.29
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 6 (7089.19) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-16810.29)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 7089.19 (6) consecutive loss (count of losses) -16810.29 (1)
Average consecutive wins 6 consecutive losses 1


Any idea on why I get so much different results?
Thanks in advance,
Miguel

[kajan]

Hi there,

I am new to this forum (just bought FAPS) and I am having some trouble to reproduce those results. I must be missing something as I get stopped out in 7 trades. Please note that TP & SlipPage are multiplied by 10 as Alpari is giving 5-digit quotes. Apart from that, I think I used the same parameters. Please see below:

Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.02 09:00 - 2008.11.14 22:55 (2008.01.02 - 2008.11.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=11; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=11; StopTime=5; aaa=30; bbb=15; TakeProfit=250; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=0; UseMAControl=1; PeriodMA=75; PriceMA_0_6=0; TypeMA_0_3=0; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=30; OrderMagic=231313; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0; StartWorkTimeHour=0; StartWorkTimeMin=0; EndWorkTimeHour=0; EndWorkTimeMin=0; KEY="209011512";

Bars in test 65724 Ticks modelled 3496702 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0

Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -9721.10 Gross profit 7089.19 Gross loss -16810.29
Profit factor 0.42 Expected payoff -1388.73
Absolute drawdown 9721.10 Maximal drawdown 18327.65 (98.50%) Relative drawdown 98.50% (18327.65)

Total trades 7 Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%) Long positions (won %) 7 (85.71%)
Profit trades (% of total) 6 (85.71%) Loss trades (% of total) 1 (14.29%)
Largest profit trade 1445.00 loss trade -16810.29
Average profit trade 1181.53 loss trade -16810.29
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 6 (7089.19) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-16810.29)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 7089.19 (6) consecutive loss (count of losses) -16810.29 (1)
Average consecutive wins 6 consecutive losses 1


Any idea on why I get so much different results?
Thanks in advance,
Miguel
Hi Miguel

You have tp=250, it should be tp=25

[Mgomez]

I know, It says in the manual that if you get 5-digit quotes then pips figures have to be multiplied by 10. In any case, I tried the "standard" version as well, and I didn't get any further that 42 trades. See below:

Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.02 09:00 - 2008.11.14 22:55 (2008.01.02 - 2008.11.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=11; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=11; StopTime=5; aaa=30; bbb=15; TakeProfit=25; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=0; UseMAControl=1; PeriodMA=75; PriceMA_0_6=0; TypeMA_0_3=0; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=3; OrderMagic=231313; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0; StartWorkTimeHour=0; StartWorkTimeMin=0; EndWorkTimeHour=0; EndWorkTimeMin=0; KEY="209011512";

Bars in test 65724 Ticks modelled 3496702 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0

Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -9702.68 Gross profit 4631.16 Gross loss -14333.84
Profit factor 0.32 Expected payoff -231.02
Absolute drawdown 9702.68 Maximal drawdown 14420.72 (97.98%) Relative drawdown 97.98% (14420.72)

Total trades 42 Short positions (won %) 6 (100.00%) Long positions (won %) 36 (97.22%)
Profit trades (% of total) 41 (97.62%) Loss trades (% of total) 1 (2.38%)
Largest profit trade 134.50 loss trade -14333.84
Average profit trade 112.96 loss trade -14333.84
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 41 (4631.16) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-14333.84)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 4631.16 (41) consecutive loss (count of losses) -14333.84 (1)
Average consecutive wins 41 consecutive losses 1

[^eagle^]

I know, It says in the manual that if you get 5-digit quotes then pips figures have to be multiplied by 10. In any case, I tried the "standard" version as well, and I didn't get any further that 42 trades. See below:

Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.02 09:00 - 2008.11.14 22:55 (2008.01.02 - 2008.11.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=11; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=11; StopTime=5; aaa=30; bbb=15; TakeProfit=25; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=0; UseMAControl=1; PeriodMA=75; PriceMA_0_6=0; TypeMA_0_3=0; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=3; OrderMagic=231313; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0; StartWorkTimeHour=0; StartWorkTimeMin=0; EndWorkTimeHour=0; EndWorkTimeMin=0; KEY="209011512";

Bars in test 65724 Ticks modelled 3496702 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0

Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -9702.68 Gross profit 4631.16 Gross loss -14333.84
Profit factor 0.32 Expected payoff -231.02
Absolute drawdown 9702.68 Maximal drawdown 14420.72 (97.98%) Relative drawdown 97.98% (14420.72)

Total trades 42 Short positions (won %) 6 (100.00%) Long positions (won %) 36 (97.22%)
Profit trades (% of total) 41 (97.62%) Loss trades (% of total) 1 (2.38%)
Largest profit trade 134.50 loss trade -14333.84
Average profit trade 112.96 loss trade -14333.84
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 41 (4631.16) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-14333.84)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 4631.16 (41) consecutive loss (count of losses) -14333.84 (1)
Average consecutive wins 41 consecutive losses 1

I got similar results backtesting four years ago.

I figure if we want good results we need to have more backtesting than just this year. The FOREX market will continue to grow and change so the more experiences it has the better.


What I have been finding is that if you put your LRR>5 you will blow your account no matter what the settings.

Even my current setting is in jeopardy. I consider it conservative.

However I have noticed a few things about backtesting since I finally figured it out.

Most end of month closeouts eventually take profit.

something occurs around the fifteenth of each month that stifles trades

The default settings is a slow but steady profit maker at LRR=1

[oofdah]

I ran these exact settings again, but with an LRR of 5 and here are my results:

Bars in test 65722
Ticks modelled 2843136
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 205451.46
Gross profit 285255.45
Gross loss -79804.00
Profit factor 3.57
Expected payoff 769.48
Absolute drawdown 2670.32
Maximal drawdown 92071.28 (54.57%)
Relative drawdown 69.35% (53852.92)
Total trades 267
Short positions (won %) 153 (97.39%)
Long positions (won %) 114 (95.61%)
Profit trades (% of total) 258 (96.63%)
Loss trades (% of total) 9 (3.37%)
Largest
profit trade 2850.26
loss trade -33056.93
Average
profit trade 1105.64
loss trade -8867.11
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 54 (103453.64)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-33056.93)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 103453.64 (54)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -33056.93 (1)
Average
consecutive wins 29
consecutive losses 1


Still quite an exceptional return if you ask me, without as much risk to blow out your account early.

[Sooner]

I get similar results using these settings and running it all the way to market open today. Not quite as high as Earl's but very very close. I did notice that if you have a lower starting balance ($1,000), it blows out on 9/15 losing about $45,000 between 9/11 and 9/15 I am guessing on a margin call.

[Earl]

These settings seem to be safer....I made more with them on every test vs Mine...not much more but more...

set the tp to 25

it just rips through the months.

Willsell's setting are now on my live account..at 11%lrr..lol

[Big Toe]

I got similar results backtesting four years ago.

I figure if we want good results we need to have more backtesting than just this year. The FOREX market will continue to grow and change so the more experiences it has the better.


What I have been finding is that if you put your LRR>5 you will blow your account no matter what the settings.

Even my current setting is in jeopardy. I consider it conservative.

However I have noticed a few things about backtesting since I finally figured it out.

Most end of month closeouts eventually take profit.

something occurs around the fifteenth of each month that stifles trades

The default settings is a slow but steady profit maker at LRR=1

I propose that when we test new settings we should report net profit for three time periods:

1/2008 to 11/2008
and
1/2007 to 11/2008
and
1/2006 to 11/2008

until we get settings that don't blow out your account in any of those 3 periods then they really are not viable settings.

also I noticed on my demo account that my trades that were in deficit were not closed out on the 1st. Does this only happen in real money accounts?

[oofdah]

Good idea Big Toe. I've got my fastest computer doing that as we speak ;)

I will post results as they come.

[oofdah]

Ok first result from 1/07 to 11/08:



Bars in test 138681
Ticks modelled 4035172
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 2
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 573415.87
Gross profit 804764.21
Gross loss -231348.34
Profit factor 3.48
Expected payoff 1588.41
Absolute drawdown 5262.14
Maximal drawdown 109576.47 (26.31%)
Relative drawdown 83.79% (24484.68)
Total trades 361
Short positions (won %) 161 (96.27%)
Long positions (won %) 200 (95.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 345 (95.57%)
Loss trades (% of total) 16 (4.43%)
Largest
profit trade 4513.51
loss trade -42945.33
Average
profit trade 2332.65
loss trade -14459.27
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 54 (145894.91)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-11365.50)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 145894.91 (54)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -42945.33 (1)
Average
consecutive wins 23
consecutive losses 1

[oofdah]

Seems to have blown out in 06...

Results from 1/06 to 11/08:

Bars in test 212929
Ticks modelled 5893068
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 2
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -8845.65
Gross profit 10209.51
Gross loss -19055.16
Profit factor 0.54
Expected payoff -353.83
Absolute drawdown 8845.65
Maximal drawdown 13863.24 (92.31%)
Relative drawdown 92.31% (13863.24)
Total trades 25
Short positions (won %) 7 (85.71%)
Long positions (won %) 18 (83.33%)
Profit trades (% of total) 21 (84.00%)
Loss trades (% of total) 4 (16.00%)
Largest
profit trade 600.00
loss trade -10266.90
Average
profit trade 486.17
loss trade -4763.79
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 9 (4965.59)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-7409.41)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 4965.59 (9)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -10266.90 (1)
Average
consecutive wins 7
consecutive losses 1



It's final trade was:

75 2006.04.27 16:31 close at stop 25 2.00 1.2532 0.0000 1.2020 -10266.90 1154.35

[Earl]

why do you guys want to go back soooo far.....???

2007 is good enough IMHO

I don't think my settings would have made it through 3 years at lrr 11% either

[oofdah]

I ran them again at 5% from 06 and they still pretty much tanked out.

Perhaps 2006 was just a really bad year? :)

[Sooner]

I would tend to agree that unless we can get a solid set of tests over a three year period then the settings are only as good as the current market conditions. To have a true EA we need settings the function as well in a bad market as they do in a good one and I don't think 2008 is a market that can be repeated simply because of all the financial turmoil we have experienced over the past year.

I have done several more back tests for 2008 with those settings and at 3000 starting balance they work, anything less and it blows out on or about 9/22. I played with the max lots size and it blows out big time if the lot sizes are increased over 11 at about the same time period.

Ideally it would be nice to find the optimal settings not only for a $10,000 balance but even a $1,000 starting balance and ones that would survive the past three years as I think that would be a set of values which would remain profitable even in an unstable market.

[Earl]

my settings made it through 3 years at 11% lots size of 1...1 trade...

I'll post it..it's just on my other computer

[oofdah]

Willsell's setting are now on my live account..at 11%lrr..lol

How's it looking so far Earl?

[Earl]

I got nervous and took them off...LOL

made a crazy trade this morning good thing I was using ess hedge..lol

I've been playing with the settings all last night...

[Willsell]

11% lrr is that 1.1 or 11?
if lrr = 11 then you are living on the edge for sure you may do well for a minute but over time 11 will kill you ...... just my opinion developed from serious backtesting with LRR.

[Earl]

no I did a back test at 11% 1 trade max lots 1...and it made it through 3 years

1.1 lrr anything can make that...LOL

[Willsell]

These settings seem to be safer....I made more with them on every test vs Mine...not much more but more...

set the tp to 25

it just rips through the months.

Willsell's setting are now on my live account..at 11%lrr..lol

Earl how is your live account holding up at 11%?