USDCAD and GBPCHF

mike360 · #1 12-13-2008, 01:41 AM

I was doin' some backtesting tonight and I noticed something. USDCAD and GBPCHF don't perform well in an accurate backtest from Oct. 13th to Dec. 12th. GBPCHF generates a little profit, but it hit it's stoploss quite a bit - like 7 times - which lowers it's profit for a month. I'm still gonna trade it - but with lower lot size. USDCAD is just garbage. It doesn't even generate a profit in the backtest because it hits it's stoploss so much. Because of this discovery, I'll only be trading the EURGBP, GBPCHF, and EURCHF. The EURGBP never hit it's stoploss in the same backtests. When I ran the backtest on the EURCHF, the modeling quality was n/a, so I can't really say it's an accurate backtest. It hit the stoploss like 3 times in October, which is probably a problem with the backtest, but from November 1st on, it also didn't hit it's stoploss. If you decide to trade the GBPCHF and USDCAD pairs, you should consider lowering your risk on those pairs because they hit their stoplosses quite frequently. I've read that some people aren't trading the USDCAD for the same reason as I just noted, but I didn't realize how poorly it actually performs in an accurate backtest.

UPDATE:
I just went to fap turbo's website and I looked at the first live account and noticed that EURCHF actually did hit it's stoploss a few times in October around the 13th, 14th, and 15th, so that confirms that my backtest with modeling quality n/a is actually accurate. And they're not even trading USDCAD in the live account I looked at, so I don't even know why they would suggest that pair for the EA.

grandaevus · #2 12-13-2008, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike360

I was doin' some backtesting tonight and I noticed something. USDCAD and GBPCHF don't perform well in an accurate backtest from Oct. 13th to Dec. 12th. GBPCHF generates a little profit, but it hit it's stoploss quite a bit - like 7 times - which lowers it's profit for a month. I'm still gonna trade it - but with lower lot size. USDCAD is just garbage. It doesn't even generate a profit in the backtest because it hits it's stoploss so much. Because of this discovery, I'll only be trading the EURGBP, GBPCHF, and EURCHF. The EURGBP never hit it's stoploss in the same backtests. When I ran the backtest on the EURCHF, the modeling quality was n/a, so I can't really say it's an accurate backtest. It hit the stoploss like 3 times in October, which is probably a problem with the backtest, but from November 1st on, it also didn't hit it's stoploss. If you decide to trade the GBPCHF and USDCAD pairs, you should consider lowering your risk on those pairs because they hit their stoplosses quite frequently. I've read that some people aren't trading the USDCAD for the same reason as I just noted, but I didn't realize how poorly it actually performs in an accurate backtest.

UPDATE:
I just went to fap turbo's website and I looked at the first live account and noticed that EURCHF actually did hit it's stoploss a few times in October around the 13th, 14th, and 15th, so that confirms that my backtest with modeling quality n/a is actually accurate. And they're not even trading USDCAD in the live account I looked at, so I don't even know why they would suggest that pair for the EA.

Hi Mike, what are the spreads of each pair? May be spreads are too high in some pairs and fapturbo struggles to exit with a profit.

mike360 · #3 12-13-2008, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grandaevus

Hi Mike, what are the spreads of each pair? May be spreads are too high in some pairs and fapturbo struggles to exit with a profit.

Hey Grand,

With my broker, it's like this..

GBPCHF has a 7-9 pip spread, which I can understand muffles it's performance a bit

USDCAD has a 5 pip spread, which shouldn't bother it's performance. It's just a bad pair for this EA, even though it did very will for me the past week

EURGBP usually has a 3 pip spread, but I saw it at 5 on Thursday

EURCHF has a 5 pip spread

grandaevus · #4 12-13-2008, 02:27 AM

They are too high Mike. In my opininon, above 3 is a killer spread.

My broker's spreads

GBPCHF - spread=4 , I've excluded from fapturbo since spread is above 3

USDCAD - spread=1 , working well

EURGBP - spread=2 , excellent results so far

EURCHF - spread=2 , working well

EURUSD - spread=1 , not opened a trade in M1 long term so far

mike360 · #5 12-13-2008, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grandaevus

They are too high Mike. In my opininon, above 3 is a killer spread.

My broker's spreads

GBPCHF - spread=4 , I've excluded from fapturbo since spread is above 3

USDCAD - spread=1 , working well

EURGBP - spread=2 , excellent results so far

EURCHF - spread=2 , working well

EURUSD - spread=1 , not opened a trade in M1 long term so far

Well, dude, that's like cream dream spreads.. I don't even expect to get spreads like that with a company that'll let me start an account for $250. You probably are with a company that has a $2,000 minimum account deposit. Who is your broker ? I think my broker's spreads are decent - turned $250 into $350 with 0.03 and 0.04 lots last week. I mean, you're saying above 3 is a killer spread. Ask around. Most people don't deal with brokers with spreads like the ones you mentioned.

As far as USDCAD goes, fap turbo website's live accounts don't even trade it. How the hell, in these times, can you get spreads that low ? I don't even understand that. Is InvesTechFX your broker ?

Jason · #6 12-13-2008, 03:26 AM

In forward testing, both live and demo accounts of mine have nice profits in the USDCAD pair. I'd love to have updated, optimized LRR numbers from the developers, but I think it's too early to write off the Loonie trades.

mike360 · #7 12-13-2008, 03:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason

In forward testing, both live and demo accounts of mine have nice profits in the USDCAD pair. I'd love to have updated, optimized LRR numbers from the developers, but I think it's too early to write off the Loonie trades.

Yes, in the past week USDCAD has made me about 60 pips by itself. That doesn't mean it's gonna put those kind of numbers up consistantly.

grandaevus · #8 12-13-2008, 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike360

Well, dude, that's like cream dream spreads.. I don't even expect to get spreads like that with a company that'll let me start an account for $250. You probably are with a company that has a $2,000 minimum account deposit. Who is your broker ? I think my broker's spreads are decent - turned $250 into $350 with 0.03 and 0.04 lots last week. I mean, you're saying above 3 is a killer spread. Ask around. Most people don't deal with brokers with spreads like the ones you mentioned.

As far as USDCAD goes, fap turbo website's live accounts don't even trade it. How the hell, in these times, can you get spreads that low ? I don't even understand that. Is InvesTechFX your broker ?

Yeah Mike. Investtechfx is my broker. I searched a lot brokers before opening a live account.

There're two important criterias for me when choosing a broker.

Firm has to be regulated.

Spreads must be low and fixed.

shohami · #9 12-13-2008, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grandaevus

Firm has to be regulated.

What kind of regulation is there on InvestTechFX ?
I didn't see them mentioning anything about regulation on their website, or on
Globex Inter Bank website.

grandaevus · #10 12-13-2008, 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shohami

What kind of regulation is there on InvestTechFX ?
I didn't see them mentioning anything about regulation on their website, or on
Globex Inter Bank website.

I know, the web site is so poor and hard to find essential data.

They are Registered in Canada under Canada Business Corporation Act.

When asked to open a live account, they give you two acc. no.

One is for funding & withdrawals. It's opened in Globex Interbank.

The other one is a login number to trade in mt4 trading platform provided by investtechfx.